S&P World Scores has assigned a preliminary score of “B” to the senior debt score of the Birkenstock group following plans introduced by L Catterton to accumulate a controlling stake within the German-based shoe maker. The outlook is secure.
The finalization of the transaction is scheduled for the primary half of 2021. Your entire acquisition transaction needs to be financed by 1,075 million euros (equal in euros) of senior time period loans, 430 million euros of different senior unsecured money owed, a vendor mortgage of 275 million euros. and an fairness contribution of round 2.0 billion euros.
S&P assigns a preliminary “ B ” score to BK LC Lux Finco 1 Sàrl (dad or mum firm of the Birkenstock group) and the proposed senior secured amenities of € 1,075 million due in 2028, and a preliminary score of “ CCC + to the 430 million euros supplied different unsecured. debt due 2029.
Secure outlook displays S&P’s view that Birkenstock has enough credit standing margin inside its credit score metrics, gradual deleveraging outlook and strong annual free working money movement (FOCF). of 120 million euros or extra.
S&P mentioned in its evaluation: “The Birkenstock model is properly established in mature markets with comparatively decrease fashion-related volatility. We consider the Birkenstock model has robust fairness energy in its area of interest class of sandals and orthopedic footwear merchandise. That is primarily as a consequence of its particular performance, lengthy model historical past and good management of the provision chain and manufacturing course of to keep up a continuing stage of product high quality. We notice that, in comparison with different clothes manufacturers, Birkenstock has a comparatively decrease threat related to trend modifications. The fundamental fashions have been available on the market for a few years and the corporate has a various and constant buyer base, with model differentiation linked to the orthopedic traits of its merchandise. Birkenstock is making an attempt to develop its buyer base, particularly via partnerships with different manufacturers, similar to Valentino, Stüssy and others. Though model consciousness exterior of Europe and North America is comparatively low, the corporate intends to extend its penetration in markets like China and India. We notice that, in comparison with the common for branded attire, Birkenstock spends a comparatively much less quantity on advertising and marketing actions, which helps robust profitability indicators.
“The corporate has a powerful observe report of income progress, with comparatively secure profitability. Between 2012 and 2020, Birkenstock’s income reached a compound annual progress charge CAGR of round 19%, vastly surpassing the worldwide footwear business. Extra not too long ago, through the fiscal 12 months ended September 30, 2020 (fiscal 2020), Birkenstock recorded year-over-year income progress of 1.2%. The group was in a position to offset the dangerous results of the pandemic on its wholesale and bodily gross sales channel primarily because of the robust momentum of on-line gross sales, which elevated by 81%. We consider the footwear business will proceed to be supported by constructive business components similar to casualization, premiumization, sustainability, and wellness traits. For these causes, we might count on a harder setting for formal footwear, whereas athletic and informal footwear may reap some long-term advantages additionally supported by the shift to make money working from home.
“We contemplate the obstacles to entry into the business to be average. The worldwide footwear business is extremely fragmented, with the highest 5 gamers accounting for lower than 25% of the market share in line with Euromonitor. Though we contemplate the business obstacles to be average, the product phase wherein Birkenstock operates is comparatively small and with particular options that aren’t the main target of consideration of most main shoe producers. The primary components in mitigating aggressive strain relate primarily to the orthopedic traits of the insoles, in addition to the power of Birkenstock’s model and the vertically built-in enterprise mannequin.
“The corporate’s distribution technique is evolving, together with an rising give attention to direct gross sales to prospects. Wholesale is Birkenstock’s largest distribution channel. In fiscal 2020, wholesaling accounted for roughly 70% of complete gross sales, e-commerce 25%, and bodily retail roughly 5%. North America is the corporate’s most superior market from a distribution perspective, with direct-to-customer (DTC) accounting for roughly 34% of regional company gross sales. One of many firm’s priorities is to streamline the wholesale enterprise with a bunch of companions higher aligned with the Birkenstock model. The group expects the DTC channel to generate an rising share of gross sales, primarily via the acceleration of e-commerce. In keeping with Euromonitor, in 2020, digital gross sales accounted for round 26% of the full world footwear business (up from 11% in 2015), which broadly matches the present contribution of e-commerce for the group. The share of income generated by the agency’s bodily retail is low by business requirements. The corporate opened flagship retail shops in Soho (New York) in 2018 and Venice Seashore (California) in 2019. As of September 2020, Birkenstock had 52 shops. As a part of model constructing and higher publicity to DTC, Birkenstock plans to open chosen new shops, primarily in Europe (excluding Germany) and america; Nonetheless, in line with the corporate’s baseline state of affairs, the principle driver of progress stays the web channel.
“Product range is proscribed, given the give attention to a distinct segment phase of the footwear business. We notice that over 70 % of annual gross sales are generated from 5 fashions – basic base – with the unique “Arizona” mannequin being a serious contributor to complete gross sales. In recent times, the corporate has expanded the Arizona mannequin (two strap sandal) to incorporate new colours, textiles and patterns. The corporate additionally desires to develop into different classes apart from sandals (similar to closed-toe footwear, youngsters phase, equipment and others), however these nonetheless symbolize a restricted share of the general enterprise. As well as, in our credit score evaluation, we take into consideration the corporate’s restricted publicity to rising markets and earnings contributions from just a few mature markets, with the highest three international locations accounting for over 60% of complete gross sales.
“The money movement translation offsets the comparatively excessive adjusted debt of S&P World Scores in opposition to EBITDA. Based mostly on our baseline state of affairs, we count on the corporate to keep up S&P World Scores adjusted debt to EBITDA of seven.0x-7.5x over the subsequent two years. We anticipate gradual deleveraging after the shut of the transaction, because of natural progress and the self-discipline of discretionary spending. In our calculation of adjusted debt, we embrace a vendor mortgage of 275 million euros associated to the deferred buy worth below the acquisition settlement. In our base case, we assume that the curiosity payable on the vendor mortgage can be in sort, as per firm pointers. As well as, now we have adjusted the corporate’s reported debt to incorporate roughly € 50 million associated to the online current worth of working leases, and now we have no internet money obtainable on the steadiness sheet on reported debt. In our baseline state of affairs, we count on the corporate to generate FOCFs (after capital expenditure, working capital, money curiosity, taxes and lease funds) of 120-150 million euros. Positively, we count on our Adjusted EBITDA curiosity protection ratio to be above 3.0x over the long run. We notice that Birkenstock has not made any acquisitions up to now and that the chance of a big leveraged acquisition is low, in our opinion.
“The secure outlook displays our view that Birkenstock will preserve S&P World Scores Adjusted EBITDA margins at 27-28%, whereas persevering with to generate a strong annual FOCF of € 120-150 million. We consider the corporate’s technique to consolidate its place in mature markets, develop in Asia and give attention to the DTC channel ought to result in gradual deleveraging, with a debt / EBITDA ratio adjusted to 7.0x -7.5x over the subsequent two years (together with provider mortgage.). In our baseline state of affairs, we count on the group to keep up EBITDA curiosity protection above 3.0x. “